Scenario War Room

What it does

Modeling cascading what-if scenarios across business functions when facing compound adversity or major strategic decisions.

Procedure

When this skill is activated, Chalie follows these steps:

1. Use memory to recall the company’s current metrics, runway, headcount, and any prior scenario analyses.
2. Use memory to recall any prior scenario inputs, then ask the user to define up to three scenario variables, each with: what changes, estimated probability, and timeline.
3. Use document to map the impact of each variable across relevant business domains: cash and runway, revenue, product, engineering velocity, people, and operations.
4. Use document to model cascade effects — show how Variable A triggering consequences in one domain amplifies or accelerates Variable B’s effects.
5. Use code_eval to compute quantitative impacts such as runway changes, ARR gaps, or burn multiple shifts under each scenario combination.
6. Use document to produce outputs at three severity levels (mild, moderate, severe) with specific financial and operational consequences for each.
7. Use document to define for each scenario combination: pre-committed hedges (actions taken now regardless), conditional triggers (the specific signal that activates a response), and the response playbook.
8. Use document to save the scenario model, cascade map, and hedge playbook.

Version

v1 (curated)